Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Recaps

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sammy Zeglinski scored a season-high 21 points to lead Virginia to a 68-62 victory over Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum.

Virginia (15-15), seeded ninth in the 12-team field, halted a nine-game losing streak and prevailed despite being without leading scorer and second team All- ACC selection Sylven Landesberg, suspended by head coach Tony Bennett prior to the regular-season finale for academic reasons.

Zeglinski helped offset the loss by making 8-of-15 shots, including 5-of-10 from three-point range, with Jeff Jones adding 14 points and Jerome Meyinsse 12 for the Cavaliers, who will face top-seeded Duke in Friday's quarterfinals. Mike Scott posted a double-double in the win, compiling 11 points and a game- best 13 rebounds.

Rakim Sanders led Boston College (15-16) with 22 points, while Reggie Jackson finished with 18 points and nine rebounds in a losing cause.

Virginia trailed 23-17 after Sanders buried a three-pointer near the midway point of the first half, but took control with a 17-2 run over the next 8 1/2 minutes. Zeglinski's fourth triple of the period put the Cavaliers up 32-25 with 2:12 left before intermission, and the lead was extended to nine points on Scott's fastbreak dunk 25 seconds later.

Boston College pulled within 34-27 at the break on a Jackson layup with 1:16 left in the opening period.

The Cavaliers' advantage swelled to as many as 11 points early in the second half, but an 8-0 burst capped by Dallas Elmore's layup with 8:44 to go cut the Eagles' deficit to 49-46. Sanders scored the first six points of the spurt.

Virginia answered by scoring seven of the next nine points, however, with another Zeglinski trey pushing the margin to 56-48 with 5:41 left. The Eagles would get no closer than five points the rest the way.

Zeglinski led all scorers with 16 first-half points on 6-of-9 shooting.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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