If healthy, Blackmon provides versatility for Pack

Football Betting Lines

08/17/2010 -

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) -Sometimes, Will Blackmon's versatility even surprises his teammates.

Exhibit A came early in training camp, when wide receiver Greg Jennings ran his route and plowed straight into a safety. Then Jennings looked up and did a double-take.

``He looked up and said, 'Safety?,''' Blackmon said. ``He said, 'I didn't know you were at safety.' I said, 'Yeah, they're not getting rid of me.'''

Blackmon spent the offseason preparing to move from cornerback to safety, although he'll still try to get some snaps at cornerback when the Packers deploy their nickel and dime defenses. And he'll try to play a featured role in the Packers' return game.

If he can stay healthy, that is.

Blackmon is less than 10 months removed from surgery on his left anterior cruciate ligament, the latest and most serious in a string of injuries that have held back the 2006 fourth-round pick out of Boston College.

Blackmon has been a sporadic participant in Packers camp so far. But he was practicing Tuesday after an extended absence, and insists he will be ready for the Sept. 12 opener at Philadelphia.

``It's not even a concern about the opener,'' Blackmon said. ``The main thing is just make sure that I do this, come back strong, do it right. Because I will say this whole injury is a nine to 11 month (recovery). I'm in month nine. So I could sit there, be cool and be prideful, and be like 'I came back in seven months, I came back in eight months,' tell them how strong I am. The bottom line is, six-seven-eight-nine-10-11 months, as long as you're ready by the first game, that's the most important thing.''

With depth issues in the defensive backfield and a need for a consistent threat in the return game, Packers coach Mike McCarthy hopes Blackmon can get back on the field consistently - and stay there.

``I had a chance to watch Will out there today,'' McCarthy said. ``He looks really good in the return game. It was good to have him back there. But Will is definitely a factor at the safety position and the corner position. It's good just to get Will healthy and hopefully we can stack some practices with him.''

Injuries have limited Blackmon to only 32 regular-season games in four seasons.

Foot problems plagued him in 2006 and 2007 but he had a productive 2008, playing 16 games and scoring twice on punt returns. Then he sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 last season.

``Unfortunately and fortunately, I've gone through something before,'' Blackmon said. ``Obviously this is the major one of them all, but I'm still here, I have confirmation from the doctors that I'm going to be back to elite form. Because that was my main concern when I got hurt, it was like, 'Aw, man, will I be the same, will I be elite?' And then as I started progressing, I started getting more and more confidence.''

Blackmon credits a unique nutritional program for his quick recovery this time around.

``I grew up, I had digestive problems, I lost my mother to Crohn's, which is a digestive disease,'' Blackmon said. ``So my main thing is I wanted to make sure that my system was OK.''

So Blackmon said he started working with an enzyme chemist.

``I feel like that kind of sped up a lot of stuff,'' he said. ``Because for me having all my situations, like non-contact, like self-inflicted (injuries), then there must be something wrong with me internally, so we were trying to figure that out and we thought that was one of the things that could help.''

Blackmon admits he still has something to prove. It's one thing to identify the calls he'll need to make as a safety in the meeting rooms, and another thing to do it quickly and correctly on the field.

Defensive coordinator Dom Capers acknowledged that Blackmon is in a tough spot.

``It's been awful hard,'' Capers said. ``I mean, it's hard for a guy that's played the position not getting reps. But a guy that's making a move and not getting reps, it's extremely hard.''

But Blackmon is confident he can make his mark this season, both in the defensive backfield and on special teams, where the Packers are trying to create competition in the return game.

``The bottom line is, I'm still here,'' Blackmon said. ``They've still got to compete. I know what I've done. So I'm making sure I get myself back to full strength so that I can continue to do what I was doing.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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