Kentucky Derby Future Wager - Pool 3

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager begins this weekend with the usual 23 single-betting interests and the 24th selection, which includes all other horses. That choice, known as "the Mutuel Field," has been successful in three of the previous 11 years, including the last one when Mine That Bird crossed the wire first at Churchill Downs.

The surprise winner was 50-1 on Derby Day after going off at 17-1 as part of the "field."

At first glance, it appears that the better wager was to bet all "field" horses on the day of the race since cashing a win bet at 50-1 is a lot more attractive than doing so at 17-1. However, when you consider that eight non- Pool 3 entrants ran in the race, the smart wager would have been to bet the "field" in the final future wager.

Why you say? Well, a bettor would have had to play every non-single entrant horse instead of just keying the "field" and then hope one of the higher priced ones came out on top.

Consider this. If a $2 win ticket was used on all eight of those horses, then that $16 total would have brought back $103.20 for an $87.20 return on investment, or ROI. Betting that $16 on the "field" at 17-1 would have returned $294.40 for an ROI of $278.40 - a much higher total than $87.20.

It's almost impossible to predict how many "field" horses will show up in the starting gate on Derby Day and this year the task becomes that much harder because the powers that be moved Pool 3 up a week. That means results of key races, such as the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby, will not even be a factor!

Pool 3 "field" horses usually do not win the Kentucky Derby. As mentioned earlier, only three have accomplished the feat with Mine That Bird joining War Emblem (2002) and Charismatic (1999).

On the other hand, there have been five Pool 1 and Pool 2 "field" winners over the years as both Smarty Jones and Big Brown were not among the 23 single betting interests early in their three-year-old seasons. That means almost half (46%) of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners were "field" horses in the first two pools.

This year's Pool 3 entrants will be announced on Wednesday and I expect there to be eight changes based on performance and graded earnings.

American Lion, Buddy's Saint, D'Funnybone, Dave in Dixie, Nextdoorneighbor, Radiohead, Setsuko, and Vale of York should be removed with Alphie's Bet, Awesome Act, Backtalk, Ice Box, Interactif, Make Music for Me, Pleasant Prince and Schoolyard Dreams taking their places.

BETTING STRATEGY

If those predictions ring true, the horse to watch is Alphie's Bet, especially since the Sham winner is still flying below the radar.

For those interested in betting the expected Kentucky Derby favorites, my advice is to wait until race day instead of wagering in Pool 3. The reason? The odds will not be much more attractive this time of the year compared to the first Saturday in May.

Since 1999, five Derby winners were either first or second choice in the wagering on the day of the race, and only one, Smarty Jones, paid at least seven dollars more in Pool 3.

Furthermore, by betting the short-priced colts too early, the risk of injury comes into play. Who would have thought last year that I Want Revenge and Quality Road would not even be in the Churchill Downs starting gate?

The best wagers to make this time of the year are on horses that look like overlays (higher odds than expected). Besides Alphie's Bet, take a shot with Make Music for Me, Noble's Promise and Connemara.

In addition, betting the "field" could wind up as an attractive play since more prep races will be available for longshots to win. Keep an eye on the odds, especially on Sunday, since the "field" closed at 17-1 last year after opening at 10-1.

THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12

1) Eskendereya; 2) Lookin At Lucky; 3) Alphie's Bet; 4) Noble's Promise; 5) Make Music for Me; 6) Dublin; 7) Awesome Act; 8) Super Saver; 9) Connemara; 10) Caracortado; 11) Ice Box; 12-T) Backtalk and Sidney's Candy.

ICE BOX - COOL UNDER PRESSURE

On the first day of spring, who would have thought a horse by the name of Ice Box would win the Florida Derby and take home the winner's share of the $750,000 purse?

It wasn't an improbable selection as the son of Pulpit showed his closing ability during the running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes only to flatten out through the stretch. Still, not many at the track gave him much of a chance letting him go at 20-1.

The crowd made Rule the 9-5 favorite and the Todd Pletcher-trained colt did hold a two-length lead through the stretch. However, both Ice Box and Pleasant Prince were closing fast inside the final furlong with Ice Box getting his nose down first at the wire.

It was his third win in seven lifetime starts and second around two turns. Ironically, the first victory over the track also came at the expense of Pleasant Prince by one-half length back in mid-January.

The Florida Derby set up beautifully for the closers after Pulsion, who hadn't shown any early lick since last summer, forced Rule to run his first half-mile in a brisk 46 2/5 seconds. (For comparison purposes, that split came up a full second slower in the Rampart Stakes for older fillies and mares and four ticks slower in the Bonnie Miss Stakes for three-year-old fillies at the same distance earlier in the day.) In the end, the favorite couldn't keep up with the two longshots finishing third.

Eskendereya was surely flattered by the result since he pummeled both Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in the Fountain of Youth by 8 1/2-lengths!

TRAPPE SHOT - MOVING ON UP

Spring has just begun, but by the end of the summer a horse that will not compete in the Kentucky Derby could wind up being the top three-year-old in the country.

Trappe Shot continued his undefeated 2010 campaign with another smashing victory, overwhelming a field of Florida breds by 12 3/4-lengths. It was his second straight double-digit triumph, following his 10 1/4-length score in the maiden ranks on February 21.

The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt sat three-wide down the backstretch before mowing down the early leaders with ease while striding clear through the lane to win easily as the 1-5 favorite. His final time of 1:16 1/5 for the 6 1/2- furlongs is misleading as he could have run much faster if jockey Alan Garcia had urged the son of Tapit just one bit.

The only knock on Trappe Shot so far is the fact he won both races against Florida State-breds. However, that could change as there's a chance McLaughlin could send him to Aqueduct for the Withers Stakes at one-mile on April 24 where he might face D' Funnybone and quite possibly Eightyfiveinafifty.

Wwwthirdage Horseracing Betting News

<< Spurs' Pavlyuchenko will miss only 2-3 days
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Striker Roman Pavlyuchenko is set to boost Tottenham Hotspur's bid for fourth place in the Premier League by recovering from a leg injury to face Portsmouth. The in-form 28-year-old Russia internationa

<< Howard is backbone of Red Wings' playoff push
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmy Howard's play down the stretch was already making him a fan favorite in Detroit, but the rookie goaltender may have reached folk hero status in Monday night's game against the hated Pittsburgh Penguins.

<< Mets clear Reyes to return to workouts in Florida
Port St. Lucie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is expected back at spring training on Wednesday after his thyroid levels returned to normal. Reyes was diagnosed with an overactive thyroid earlier thi

<< Alabama must forfeit football wins from 2005-07
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Alabama must vacate 21 football victories over a three-year period from 2005-07 after the NCAA denied the school's appeal of penalties stemming from violations of textbook distrib

<< Sevilla's Navas out with ankle injury
Seville, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sevilla's problems are intensifying after it was confirmed that Jesus Navas could face up to a month out of action after spraining his ankle in the 2-0 defeat to Espanyol. Navas had to be substituted aft

Bayern rules out signing Schalke GK Neuer >>
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich has denied fresh rumors linking it with Germany international goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. Bayern are believed to be in the market for a new shot-stopper as they are keen for current fir

Ilgauskas returns to Cavs for stretch run >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Cavaliers announced the signing of center Zydrunas Ilgauskas on Tuesday, bringing back the center only a month after trading him to Washington. Ilgauskas was promptly released by the Wizards a

Baseball the big winner in Mauer deal >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The baseball gods smiled upon the sport on Sunday when it was announced that the Minnesota Twins locked up catcher Joe Mauer with an eight-year, $184 million extension. Now, as much fun as it would have been to watch the N

'10 Season Preview: Chivas USA has goals in mind >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA named Martin Vasquez its new coach in December, and the former Mexican and U.S. international immediately focused on improving the team's offense. Chivas scored the fewest goals in the Western Confer

Ljubicic's stayin' alive >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran Croat Ivan Ljubicic captured a most unlikely title last week by going all the way on the hardcourts at Indian Wells. The former top-five star has seemingly come back from the dead this season, cul

Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason

LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.

The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.

MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.

A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.

A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.

Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6  

The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.

Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com.  "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.

It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis.  It's like Week 1 of the NFL.  Pre-season means nada!

We do know the 24 finalists however.

Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24.  He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway.  He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien. 

Brandon Rogers - Who?

Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition.  He should go a good distance.

Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was.  And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition.  He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice!  People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way. 

"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks.  He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes.  But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.

A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”

Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes. 

"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate.  "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past.  He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far.  Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."

Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts) 

And the others:

Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter

The girls

"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis.  "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has.  The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive.  I think she will go far."

Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.

"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams.  Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth.  "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.

Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.

Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.

Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan

MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with). 

Last two contestants will be?

1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)

2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)

2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)

MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines.